International relations thread

angelic upstart

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Laugh as much as you like, this wouldn't have got as far as it has if Trump had been still at the tiller.
What would he have done? Let all the Russian spies go, like he did the Taliban in prison?
 

fred binneys head

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What would he have done? Let all the Russian spies go, like he did the Taliban in prison?
He would have contradicted his own intelligence services by confirming that Russia have no intention of invading Ukraine, like he confirmed that they didn’t interfere with the 2016 election after sharing a cup of tea for 5 minutes with Putin.

Putin and Kim Jong Un were emboldened by Trump, not sure why Jinxy thinks he was some hard case that controlled them. Quite the opposite.
 
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Phil Sayers

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Are we talking about the same Trump who:

- Openly questioned whether NATO's Article 5 commitment applied to the Baltic States.
- Pathetically fawned over a mass murderer during a joint press conference in Helsinki leading to this excellent evisceration by the late and great Senator McCain: https://rollcall.com/2018/07/16/pathetic-rout-tragic-mistake-and-painful-john-mccain-holds-little-back-in-describing-helsinki/
- Parroted Putin in claiming that the Soviets invaded Afghanistan to fight terrorism - Reagan must have been turning in his grave hearing that one....
- Mused about how nice North Korean beaches were and great for development while fawning over another mass murderer.
- Stopped CIA support for Syrian rebels seemingly without seeking any quid pro quo from the Russians or Assad regime.
- Nearly gave up what is left of US leverage in that conflict (throwing the country into further chaos in the process) by announcing a withdrawal of the tiny US troop presence. Domestic pressure stopped him from pleasing Putin that time.
- Frequently implied, if not outright stated, that he trusted Putin's word over that of US intelligence services.
- Considers that ******** Tucker Carlson has sensible foreign policy views.
- Plenty more fellatio of Putin that hasn't immediately sprung to mind.

As for Biden I think he is doing ok with this aside from his idiotic, albeit honest, comment about how 'minor incursions' would be dealt with differently to full scale invasion. Obama would have been similar although possibly a little weaker than Biden. Bush Junior would also have been similar although possibly a little stronger than Biden. Clinton I think would have been a good pair of hands for this situation.
 

Mr Jinx

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Word is, that if he's going to do it and invade, it has to be this week (for a number of reasons).

So will he, or won't he?

My money's on the latter.
 

Phil Sayers

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Depends on what 'invade' means. I'd be surprised if they launch an invasion with the intention of conquering the whole country as that is too uncertain as to long term outcome, too bloody in the short term and there doesn't seem to be any appetite for doing so amongst the Russian public. However, there are a whole host of things they can do which are short of a full scale invasion and I think it likely they will take one of those options. The one I think most likely is a devastating aerial and long range artillery bombardment on Ukrainian military positions and key civilian infrastructure (powerplants, bridges etc) which is then followed up by a rapid advance on Kiev. They won't seek to enter the city but will besiege it and demand a change of government. I simply don't see Putin as the sort of character who would march his men to the top of the hill and then march them back down again with no significant achievements to show for it.
 

Alistair20000

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Depends on what 'invade' means. I'd be surprised if they launch an invasion with the intention of conquering the whole country as that is too uncertain as to long term outcome, too bloody in the short term and there doesn't seem to be any appetite for doing so amongst the Russian public. However, there are a whole host of things they can do which are short of a full scale invasion and I think it likely they will take one of those options. The one I think most likely is a devastating aerial and long range artillery bombardment on Ukrainian military positions and key civilian infrastructure (powerplants, bridges etc) which is then followed up by a rapid advance on Kiev. They won't seek to enter the city but will besiege it and demand a change of government. I simply don't see Putin as the sort of character who would march his men to the top of the hill and then march them back down again with no significant achievements to show for it.
Invasion or not those actions would be acts of war to which the international community needs to respond.
 
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