- Mar 19, 2021
Would that it were so simple. Good ol Graun. Thinks it has the answer to everything.I’m a conflict mediator. This is our way out of the Ukraine crisis | Gabrielle Rifkind | The Guardian
Is this the way to avoid escalation?
He would have contradicted his own intelligence services by confirming that Russia have no intention of invading Ukraine, like he confirmed that they didn’t interfere with the 2016 election after sharing a cup of tea for 5 minutes with Putin.What would he have done? Let all the Russian spies go, like he did the Taliban in prison?
Invasion or not those actions would be acts of war to which the international community needs to respond.Depends on what 'invade' means. I'd be surprised if they launch an invasion with the intention of conquering the whole country as that is too uncertain as to long term outcome, too bloody in the short term and there doesn't seem to be any appetite for doing so amongst the Russian public. However, there are a whole host of things they can do which are short of a full scale invasion and I think it likely they will take one of those options. The one I think most likely is a devastating aerial and long range artillery bombardment on Ukrainian military positions and key civilian infrastructure (powerplants, bridges etc) which is then followed up by a rapid advance on Kiev. They won't seek to enter the city but will besiege it and demand a change of government. I simply don't see Putin as the sort of character who would march his men to the top of the hill and then march them back down again with no significant achievements to show for it.