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International relations thread

Phil Sayers

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Apparently a further 18 HIMARS guided rocket artillery launchers are to be provided to Ukraine by the US. The 16 already provided (along with 11 of the similar but larger M270 MLRS that have been provided by ourselves and Germany) have changed the course of the war in that they have allowed precision deep strike against targets such as ammo depots, bridges and barracks. The Russians will not like the sound of another 18 being on the way as, as long as there is plenty of the expensive ammunition, this will free some up to provide tactical support at the end of a phone call. Russian platoon in a building with a commanding field of view? Just destroy the building with an explosive Mach 2.5 arrow - not been possible as yet because the systems have been so scarce they have been reserved for major targets but with this number they could start to use them in the way we use them; tactically as well as strategically.

The article suggest that the delivery could take a while because it is funding for Ukraine to buy their own from the manufacturer rather than the provision of existing US stock. However, I rather suspect that while that may be the case for other things on the list in the instance of HIMARS what will happen is that Ukraine receives them from the US Army and then the US Army receives the ones that are newly ordered from the manufacturer.

 

Phil Sayers

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18 more HIMARS confirmed and direct from the Pentagon as I suspected would be the case. If there is a steady supply of the guided rockets then the Russkies be seriously f*cked.
 

Phil Sayers

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An estimated 5,000 Russian troops are trapped in the strategic town of Lyman. Completely encircled and utter continuous fire. Unless they can break out (they have apparently been denied permission to try) or other Russian troops can break through to re-establish supply lines Russia faces an imminent disaster. Likely the largest surrender of their forces since WW2:


 

DB9

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An estimated 5,000 Russian troops are trapped in the strategic town of Lyman. Completely encircled and utter continuous fire. Unless they can break out (they have apparently been denied permission to try) or other Russian troops can break through to re-establish supply lines Russia faces an imminent disaster. Likely the largest surrender of their forces since WW2:


Sounds very familier to what Hitler said to the Troops of the 6th Army in Stalingard in 1943, That was the turning point of WW2 on the Eastern Front, General Paulus (Later made Field Marshall because Hitler thought as one he'd rather commit suicide than surrender) preferred to surrender, Wonder if Putin is going to promote any of his commanders in Lyman?
 

DB9

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A Russian airbase in Crimea has been seen with plumes of smoke coming from the area, According to the Russians a plane "Skidded off the runway" This is the same airbase that was hit a couple months, It might be true but IIRC they said the last hit was something else and not Ukrainian fire.
 

Phil Sayers

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A Russian airbase in Crimea has been seen with plumes of smoke coming from the area, According to the Russians a plane "Skidded off the runway" This is the same airbase that was hit a couple months, It might be true but IIRC they said the last hit was something else and not Ukrainian fire.
Different airbase - the previous one was also in Crimea but called Sakhey whereas this one is Belbeck which is the main airbase there. The previous incident was initially described as a 'smoking accident' before it became very apparent it was a Ukrainian induced 'accident' but this time it does genuinely seem to be an accident. The plane which crashed (video below) was loaded with fuel and bombs which then caused large fires:



According to Ukraine not only have they taken the strategically vital town of Lyman they also killed or captured almost all of the defenders. If that is true, and the estimates of 5,000 holding the town prove vaguely accurate, it is an utter catastrophe for the Russian army. Even if the troops had escaped losing the town itself would be a huge blow but if they have also lost the troops they will struggle to prevent further rapid advance in the near future:

 
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tavyred

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Yep.
Seems to be different stories from either side about whether Russian troops were able to escape the encirclement in any great numbers.
The ar$e kicking continues.
 

Phil Sayers

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Also continuing to advance in the South - slowly and at painful cost but steadily, now gaining momentum:


 

DB9

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How long until this gets bogged down by winter on both sides, A month or two at the most?
 

Phil Sayers

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How long until this gets bogged down by winter on both sides, A month or two at the most?
Sounds about right to me. Winter snows will make large scale operations difficult but not necessarily impossible. If the ground freezes solid that will be less of a problem than a mud bath.

Both sides will spend the winter bombarding each other but will have logistical challenges with regards things like getting shells to artillery pieces. I would not be surprised if some of the training we are currently providing includes courses on how to fight in freezing conditions; it is something we practice ourselves with an eye on reinforcing Norway if ever needs be.
 
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