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grecIAN Harris

Very well known Exeweb poster
Joined
Mar 9, 2004
Messages
27,921
Location
Back home in the village
What worries me about the Argyle game is if the referee is strong enough to ref the match fairly, or will he be swayed by the baying hordes of half-man, half-beast locals.
The usual things can happen : cards for our players and not for theirs, penalties for them and not for us et al.
Let's face it, Div 2 refs often take the easy way out. I'd say we' re a goal down before the match starts.
Don't worry, Bumbling Brett has been assigned to lose total control of that one.🙄
 

IndoMike

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Joined
May 9, 2010
Messages
34,044
Location
Touring Central Java...
Don't worry, Bumbling Brett has been assigned to lose total control of that one.🙄
.
We need that bloke who went to Norway and came back. He made a stupid mistake but assuming he's said his Hail Mary's he could do it.
If the Butcherman is ref we're farked
Otherwise we call in Pate as 4th ref and hijack Huxtable on his way from Barnstapule 👍
 
Last edited:
Joined
Apr 17, 2008
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841
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www.probs4.club
Was looking at a chart below, and the form of the top five, I was surprised how good there home record was against the bottom half, and away record against the bottom 1/3 was also fairly good.


1734

So to try and evaluate how easy/difficult the run-in for the top five, I made the following calculations:

Splitting league into three and calculating the average points/game obtained by the top 5.
HDApts/game
H1/3
11​
9​
7​
1.6​
H2/3
15​
6​
4​
2​
H3/3
29​
4​
0​
2.7​
A1/3
14​
9​
14​
1.4​
A2/3
9​
7​
17​
1.8​
A3/3
1​
6​
14​
2.3​

Then assign these average points to the games remaining for each team ...
H1/3H2/3H3/3A1/3A2/3A3/3
1.6​
2​
2.7​
1.4​
1.8​
2.3​
Swin
1​
3​
2​
0​
1​
5​
26.3​
Crew
1​
3​
1​
3​
2​
2​
22.7​
Exet
1​
3​
3​
2​
1​
2​
24.9​
Plym
3​
2​
1​
0​
3​
3​
23.8​
Chel
2​
4​
0​
2​
2​
2​
22.2​

And add them to current points to give possible mean points target considering teams remaining games.
currtotalrounded
Swin
66​
26.3​
92.3​
92​
Exet
63​
24.9​
87.9​
88​
Crew
64​
22.7​
86.7​
87​
Plym
62​
23.8​
85.8​
86​
Chel
60​
22.2​
82.2​
82​

This calculation suggest we have an easier run-in than Crewe (hence we finish 2nd in this "meaningless table") and Cheltenham have the toughest set of games so hopefully they will stay a few points away from 3rd.
 

IndoMike

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May 9, 2010
Messages
34,044
Location
Touring Central Java...
You've done a lot of hard work with this and, who knows, the conclusion might be correct
However, having looked at the remaining fixtures only yesterday for the top 5, I'd say theoretically City has the hardest run-in, with those 2 away games and one at home against top 5 teams.
But football is full of surprises and if results went according to league position then we'd all be millionaires.
Every game is a big game now. Our advantage is our strength in depth.
 

RedPaul

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Joined
Apr 23, 2004
Messages
5,298
Location
Woking
You've done a lot of hard work with this and, who knows, the conclusion might be correct
However, having looked at the remaining fixtures only yesterday for the top 5, I'd say theoretically City has the hardest run-in, with those 2 away games and one at home against top 5 teams.
But football is full of surprises and if results went according to league position then we'd all be millionaires.
Every game is a big game now. Our advantage is our strength in depth.
We've also got 5 of the bottom 11 at home. Cheltenham only have 2, Crewe and Arg**e only 1
Win those 5 and we are almost, but not quite, there anyway

Can't believe Swindon's remaining fixtures, only 2 teams in the top half and one of them is free-falling FGR.
Would take a major collapso by them not to win the league, comfortably.

(Loving your work G-o-T, what a wonderful clear graphic)
 

Banksy

Very well known Exeweb poster
Joined
Jul 24, 2009
Messages
13,935
Location
Crostwight Norfolk
Every game is a big game now. Our advantage is our strength in depth.
Our weakness , sadly , our powder puff attack.....
 

Boyo

Active member
Joined
May 5, 2004
Messages
4,025
Was looking at a chart below, and the form of the top five, I was surprised how good there home record was against the bottom half, and away record against the bottom 1/3 was also fairly good.


View attachment 1734

So to try and evaluate how easy/difficult the run-in for the top five, I made the following calculations:

Splitting league into three and calculating the average points/game obtained by the top 5.
HDApts/game
H1/3
11​
9​
7​
1.6​
H2/3
15​
6​
4​
2​
H3/3
29​
4​
0​
2.7​
A1/3
14​
9​
14​
1.4​
A2/3
9​
7​
17​
1.8​
A3/3
1​
6​
14​
2.3​

Then assign these average points to the games remaining for each team ...
H1/3H2/3H3/3A1/3A2/3A3/3
1.6​
2​
2.7​
1.4​
1.8​
2.3​
Swin
1​
3​
2​
0​
1​
5​
26.3​
Crew
1​
3​
1​
3​
2​
2​
22.7​
Exet
1​
3​
3​
2​
1​
2​
24.9​
Plym
3​
2​
1​
0​
3​
3​
23.8​
Chel
2​
4​
0​
2​
2​
2​
22.2​

And add them to current points to give possible mean points target considering teams remaining games.
currtotalrounded
Swin
66​
26.3​
92.3​
92​
Exet
63​
24.9​
87.9​
88​
Crew
64​
22.7​
86.7​
87​
Plym
62​
23.8​
85.8​
86​
Chel
60​
22.2​
82.2​
82​

This calculation suggest we have an easier run-in than Crewe (hence we finish 2nd in this "meaningless table") and Cheltenham have the toughest set of games so hopefully they will stay a few points away from 3rd.
G-O-T have you got that table inclusive of the missing section, that you are able to share? Really fascinating.
 

Snoop Fog

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Joined
Jun 29, 2007
Messages
8,996
Location
Exeter
Our weakness , sadly , our powder puff attack.....
Yet we're the 4th highest scorers in the division and sit in third place in the table. Not sure why the concern?
 

Colesman Ballz

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Dec 28, 2014
Messages
14,850
Yet we're the 4th highest scorers in the division and sit in third place in the table. Not sure why the concern?
Exactly, lets leave the worrying and fretting to the TWENTY ONE clubs below us in the table. This is no time for pessimism, onwards and upwards and enjoy the ride !
 

Rosencrantz

Very well known Exeweb poster
Joined
Jul 12, 2019
Messages
10,122
Location
Tiverton
Yet we're the 4th highest scorers in the division and sit in third place in the table. Not sure why the concern?
We have been scoreless in only six league games this season whilst picking up fifteen clean sheets so we are doing well in scoring goals and very well in defending our goal.

However we have gone six league games without a clean sheet, whilst only blanking ourselves once. We have won three, lost three in those games. So the key based on our season strengths seems to be getting back to defending basics rather than scoring more.

It's natural that we always want City to score more, but at this stage, given the season we have had, maybe we should concentrate on getting back to our strengths.
 
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