Recent content by Grecian-on-Tyne

As we enter the last month of the season, larrywilkie still has the lead with denzel in 2nd. But, I think, anyone within 10 points could still grab the title.

A quick check of the tallies that make the charts show relegation once in 10,000 also re-ran 1 million times, giving relegation 43 times, so approx 23,000/1

ECFC scores first... 01/04 A Cheltenham 2-0 W 06/04 H Stevenage 0-2 L 09/04 A Leyton Orient 0-1 L 13/04 A Port Vale 1-0 W 20/04 A Northampton 1-1 D 27/04 H Oxford 1-0 W 10 points

With Bournemouth drawing a week or two back, it means unless city also drop points in one of thier three games before the finale it's not going to be decided on goal difference.

we are talking different percentages for different things. Consider https://www.probs4.club/team/Wycombe#TPO so the amount in red accounts for 0.03% of Wycombe's likely outcomes. From the 10000 predicted outcomes Wycombe get relegated four times 0.04% (rounded to 0.0%) The data from the...

Wigan are at 0.1% & Wycombe 0.0% but these are to one decimal place, so that's between, 5-14 times in 10,000 for Wigan & 1-4 times for Wycombe. If Wigan & Wycombe get zero more points then they still have a fair chance of relegation as per these graphs...

from https://www.probs4.club/team/ExeterCity#TPOPl Six more point as good as guarantees safety. Three more points, more likely to survive (68.3%)

City's relegation percentage still around 10% (10.5%) But A**yle who currently have 40 pts from 36 games & who are 16th (all three the same as City) have a relegation percentage of 15.4%, even though only three teams get related from the Championship. With 23th only two points behind on 38pts &...

02/03. A. Peterborough. L 0-2 09/03. H. Bolton. L 0-2 12/03 A. Shrewsbury. W 1-0 16/03. H Burton. L 0-1 23/03. A L Orient. L 1-2 29/03. H Charlton. W. 2-1 Six points

Can think of three reasons ... 1. My model is crap 2. You're a pessimist. 3. Historically our current position 40pts from 35 has seen a bottom four finish around 22% of the time. It just the cluster of teams below us makes it more likely the points needed to survey is a few less than average...

After last nights results + Reading's additional two points deduction, City's relegation percentage has now dipped to below 10% (9.6%) https://www.probs4.club/lge/lge1#LOOT-4 With Charlton's there is a whole host of teams that could occupy that 4th place.

Update for end of January: larrywilkie is the current leader, but there are 11 exeweb entries within 8 points. https://www.probs4.club/exeweb/predict/

Another issue with this (pessimistic) approach is that some of the games in hand will not be played until mid-April, so we will have a long wait to see all these surprising victories occur. Maybe a better way of sorting teams with varying games played is to use points minus games played...

More like 56 points (or 56.0625 if you allow decimal places) & 15th place, with Wigan and Wycombe above us. ... But still a lot healthier than a few weeks ago.

£100 City/Posh draw :unsure: