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International relations thread

DB9

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I agree but think that the analysis of being satisfied with the West arming Ukraine and then it is only a matter of time before Russia gives in is seriously flawed.
Oh i don't think Russia or more like Putin will "Give In" willingly, circumstances will dictate, If the Russian bodybags keep piling up this will be a huge factor. ATM the Kremlin have virtually sewn up all the dissent within Russia, In fact its more like the old USSR in that respect but you cant keep out the modern world forever and as Phil says going down the total war route won't happen because economies are so interlink, Even Russia's. Ideal scenario would be for Putin to have and serious illness by falling out of a window but if that happened what sort of person would take over? Someone even worse? Two people they need to get rid of that i think would help is the person who runs the Wagner Group and the Chechen leader, They seem to have too much influence over Putin, Those leaders in the Self Appointed Republics in Eastern Ukraine are just pupputs, Just like that annoying turd in Belarus.

On a side note for the West upping their contributions and more modern weapons, There's nothing like testing these weapons in a proper war scenario to see how they do, You can test all you like in peace time but a real ground war must be a real "Bonus" for Western powers and the manufactuers of these weapons and a chance to iron out any problems that come up.
 

Phil Sayers

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Phil Sayers

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Almost a year into their 3 day war and Russia is currently installing air defence SAMs on top of Moscow buildings.....


Meanwhile the pledges of military support to Ukraine keep steadily rolling in ahead of tomorrow's conference. It seems a pretty determined effort to outright win the war in 2023:

 

Hants_red

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Not a good look for Ukraine

 

DB9

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Not a good look for Ukraine

Unfortunately a problem long before Russia invaded, One of the reasons the EU were holding up starting the membership process.
 

Grecian2K

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Not a good look for Ukraine

No wonder Johnson was so keen to dive in so quickly!
Senses a new "business opportunity" opening to keep funding his own extravagant lifestyle.
 

Phil Sayers

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Germany have unbelievably bad PR despite that they have actually sent Ukraine more military support than anyone except the US, ourselves and probably Poland. They were always going to cave on the Leopard tank situation but rather than take the PR credit for an early decision they have been hammered for a doomed effort to hold back the tide.

In any event all of our Challenger 2s, their (and others) Leopard 2s and the Abrams that the US are going to send are considerably better tanks than anything the Russians can field. They are maintenance hogs and operating them will cause Ukraine a whole host of logistical headaches (for example most bridges that can take the weight of a Russian tank might not be able to manage considerably heavier Western tanks) but when they work properly they really work very well.

It is remarkable that in less than a year we have gone from wondering whether supplying anti-tank weapons etc for an insurgency is a good idea to providing some of our most modern heavy weaponry to fight large scale conventional war. The debate will turn to Western aviation (F16s etc) next.
 

DB9

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Germany have unbelievably bad PR despite that they have actually sent Ukraine more military support than anyone except the US, ourselves and probably Poland. They were always going to cave on the Leopard tank situation but rather than take the PR credit for an early decision they have been hammered for a doomed effort to hold back the tide.

In any event all of our Challenger 2s, their (and others) Leopard 2s and the Abrams that the US are going to send are considerably better tanks than anything the Russians can field. They are maintenance hogs and operating them will cause Ukraine a whole host of logistical headaches (for example most bridges that can take the weight of a Russian tank might not be able to manage considerably heavier Western tanks) but when they work properly they really work very well.
I wouldn't be surprised if we've been training the Ukranians covertly in maintence and how to use the tanks on offer because if we haven't they only have a short window before an expected Russian spring offensive. People though will have to realise that we're now doing this the Russians will say if they're offered arms from other countries it will be their right to accept any offers.
 

Phil Sayers

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I wouldn't be surprised if we've been training the Ukranians covertly in maintence and how to use the tanks on offer because if we haven't they only have a short window before an expected Russian spring offensive. People though will have to realise that we're now doing this the Russians will say if they're offered arms from other countries it will be their right to accept any offers.
Yes but those countries probably won't do it out of fear of being sanctioned. Russia can only turn to Iran, North Korea etc because anyone who does value their relationship with the West (including China for now anyway) would refuse Russian orders.
 

DB9

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Yes but those countries probably won't do it out of fear of being sanctioned. Russia can only turn to Iran, North Korea etc because anyone who does value their relationship with the West (including China for now anyway) would refuse Russian orders.
Officially but I'm sure they'd try to find a way like a 3rd country, Sort of "sell" them to one country then they get shifted on to Russia.
 
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