The Auto(s) Charge

[Trapdoor]

Our goal diff may become a massive factor. hopefully it doesnt come down to the final day!

 

[STURTZ]

Still have us down to win the league.

 

[SaintJames]

Keep Stubbs fit and we will conquer - that is all. He will lead us into the promised land - that is promotion in a nutshell

 

[andrew p long]

This is why stochastic simulation methods are preferable for football type predictions. There is significant random variance with some underlying deterministic factors. Unfortunately the best teams dont always win though so a straight deterministic prediction is unlikely to prove useful.

or to put it another way - 'its a funny old game,Saint..'

 

[andrew p long]

To get to 77 points Mansfield would need 14 points from 8 games and one of Northampton, Bristol Rovers or Tranmere would need 14 points from 8 games. While that seems possible I'm not sure we will need that many more than 77 points to get promoted.

erm..Mansfield have 11 games left don't they? And need 18 points from those 11 games to get 77 points, which is perfectly feasible. The problem with this '77 will be enough for autos' is that there are 9 teams behind FGR, only two of whom have to go on strong runs to get to 77.
So its unlikely that all sides finishing on 77 will get automatic promotion.
Though having said that I share your view that not many more than 77 will be necessary.

 

[Sexton Blake]

Have just done a rough assessment of each team currently in the top 10.

In doing so while having no crystal ball available I have attempted to make allowances for the acknowledged vagaries of football that is unexpected, unlikely results and Coupon busters.

So all very unscientific but for what it is worth I found that I finished up with 5 of the current top 10, excluding FGR who I think will stay up front and finish out on their own but including City, finishing on 79 points and another 2 with 77 points.

As I said very unscientific but it did reinforce my own opinion that to avoid being in such a log jam at the finish we probably do need to get 80 points.

 

[SEA Grecian]

erm..Mansfield have 11 games left don't they? And need 18 points from those 11 games to get 77 points, which is perfectly feasible. The problem with this '77 will be enough for autos' is that there are 9 teams behind FGR, only two of whom have to go on strong runs to get to 77.
So its unlikely that all sides finishing on 77 will get automatic promotion.
Though having said that I share your view that not many more than 77 will be necessary.

Yes, my bad. I'd worked out the maths for Mansfield and then inexplicably wrote 14 from 8 twice.

As an aside, Mansfield's game with Stevenage has been re-arranged for the 26th April which is the same night we play Barrow, Sutton play Crawley and Swindon play Forest Green. Could be an interesting night.

 

[Memphis09]

Or win the 6 pointers and lose the others and we're probably still up. Whatever way you look at it we would have to hit some shiit form to fall away from the autos and it really is ours to feck up. Can you imagine the meltdown if we ended up in 8th position.

I just can't see us hitting poor form. Even with a depleted squad we still pick up points against promotion rivals away from home. Beat Stevenage on Saturday and I'll be really confident it's our year.

Yes agree I know they are all big games but win Saturday that will cement our 2nd place and I am sure some of the teams around us will slip up
It’s in our hands now

 

[Banksy]

I think the only thing that will do for us would be injuries to key players .Nombe being out is bad enough. , add in Stubbs , Dieng and Brown at this crucial stage and it doesn’t bear thinking about. But then the other contenders for promotion will have the very same problem. So whichever team can keep it’s players fit for the remaining seven or eight games will get over the line form not withstanding.

 

[Hants_red]

I remember 2012/13 season when we beat Bradford City 4-1. Looked comfortable for an auto promotion place. Then just one point in the next seven games saw us out of the play offs.