The mighty ECFC's promotion odds

[scholsey]

33/1 for a top 3 finish. (automatic)

13/1 for promotion via playoffs/top three.

Play offs is worth a shout? I put a tenner on west ham to win the championship (7/1) and city to get promoted via playoffs/ top three as an accumulater. Returns 1200ish (had a few to many to work it out)

Come on city, this year is OURS!

All together now..... e I e I o up the football league we go............

 

[Egg]

33/1 for a top 3 finish. (automatic)

13/1 for promotion via playoffs/top three.

Play offs is worth a shout? I put a tenner on west ham to win the championship (7/1) and city to get promoted via playoffs/ top three as an accumulater. Returns 1200ish (had a few to many to work it out)

No, it doesn't. If you've already placed the bet you wanna go and speak to your bookie, pronto, as should it come up trumps they'll tell you it's a 'palpable error' and refuse, entirely legitimately, to pay out at anything like those odds.

You can't simply multiply the prices, as you appear to have done, when one or more of the events are related. It's like betting on the Tories to win the last election and doubling it up with David Cameron to be the next PM; if the first of those events happens then the chances of the second happening are greatly increased.

Here's an example of what I'm talking about:

http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/winter-wager-almost-yields-windfall-881/

 

[Poultice]

Plus of course only the first two places are autos.

 

[Cornishman]

I think you are wrong Egg.

Exeter winning promotion in league 1 IS unrelated to West Ham winning the championship so will pay like a normal accumulator.

If you place an accumulator bet on Exeter winning promotion and to stay up ten you have an error, but not in this case

 

[Egg]

I think you are wrong Egg.

Exeter winning promotion in league 1 IS unrelated to West Ham winning the championship so will pay like a normal accumulator.

If you place an accumulator bet on Exeter winning promotion and to stay up ten you have an error, but not in this case

You're absolutely right but I read it that scholsey was talking about a treble, ie West Ham to win the Championship [7-1]; Exeter to get promoted [13-1]; and Exeter to finish in the top three [33-1]. If his bet was a double, with just one of the last two options, the odds would be nothing like the 1,300-1 he has [wrongly] calculated.

 

[Anonymous]

All commercial betting shops actually have a disclaimer on accumulators saying something to the effect of "if you have odds greater than 1000 to 1 we wont pay out more than that figure."

They dont tell you this but its written quite cleary on the betting stub small print. Therefore if you ever do an accumulator make sure the combined odds come as close to 1000 to 1 as possible to avoid diminishing returns.

My sister confirmed this for me. she works in a bookies in Tooting. Proper mugs game.

 

[Strongbow]

You're absolutely right but I read it that scholsey was talking about a treble, ie West Ham to win the Championship [7-1]; Exeter to get promoted [13-1]; and Exeter to finish in the top three [33-1]. If his bet was a double, with just one of the last two options, the odds would be nothing like the 1,300-1 he has [wrongly] calculated.

But if he has put a tenner on for a £1200 return, that makes the odds 110/1 not 1,300/1....

Although I make the returns £1120

 

[scholsey]

But if he has put a tenner on for a £1200 return, that makes the odds 110/1 not 1,300/1....

Although I make the returns £1120

just to clarify i put ten pound on west ham to win the championship and city to get promoted ( via play offs / autos) as an accumulator/double. being roughly 110/1.
which strongbow as accurately worked my winnings out

 

[Grecian_Jay]

No, it doesn't. If you've already placed the bet you wanna go and speak to your bookie, pronto, as should it come up trumps they'll tell you it's a 'palpable error' and refuse, entirely legitimately, to pay out at anything like those odds.

You can't simply multiply the prices, as you appear to have done, when one or more of the events are related. It's like betting on the Tories to win the last election and doubling it up with David Cameron to be the next PM; if the first of those events happens then the chances of the second happening are greatly increased.

Here's an example of what I'm talking about:

http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/winter-wager-almost-yields-windfall-881/

What the hell is this? It was blatently obvious what he had put his money on and he had calculated it all correctly.

 

[Anonymous]

Let's just get something straight. This is not a solid bet.

If you want to bet properly just stick very large sums on clear favourites. £10k on Man Utd. to beat Crawley over 2 legs in the FA cup is a decent bet.

OK so you will get sh*t odds on stuff like that but the amount of money you generate doing this is far, far greater than any long term strat involving low value, high frequency, long odd bets.

The two major downsides to this are you firstly need a lot of initial capital which could arguably be better used in other arenas and secondly you will VERY rapidly get blacklisted and banned from all the bookies (if they even let you put the bets on in the first place!)


I like bookies, great places to meet some extremely dodgy folk.
If you ever see lads sticking hundreds and hundreds of notes into the automatic gamblers they have in there, there's a very high chance that they are laundering for someone. They do this because the machines pay out at a pretty fixed rate (something like £1 returned for every £4 put in I am led to believe, similar to scratch cards,) and normally don't get cleaned out daily.


I keep trying to think of ways to scam bookies (partly for the challenge and partly 'cause they are leeches on society,) but most of the good tricks are locked down pretty well, besides, I don't have enough spare cash to chuck at it anyway. I really do hate bookies in a way. They make their money by essentially not being at all fair. You wouldn't play dice against someone with loaded dice so why do people persist in putting money with the bookies? Vermin really.