UK Lockdown

[ramone]

I think it approximates how our government was handling this until a fortnight ago when it lost its nerve with public pressure to follow what most the world is doing. Lots on the internet such as this:

Coronavirus: Why hasn't Sweden gone into lockdown over COVID-19 pandemic?

The nation's reported case rate has been similar to that of the UK, yet the Swedish government has not implemented a shutdown.

news.sky.com

Reading through the list of countries who would have had a very small amount of cases v the amount of people who have died in those countries makes interesting reading.

 

[OmanGrecian]

Some positive news from Italy, well I say positive, but people are still dying. The daily death rate is the lowest it has been in 2 weeks and has dropped for the past 3 days. There has also been a drop in the number of people in hospital.

The lockdown is starting to show why it was needed.

 

[RedPaul]

Thanks Oman. The whole world is hoping for some 'good' news from Italy, given you can't trust anything official coming out of China.
Is it still concentrated in the North - have Rome and the South slightly escaped thus far?

 

[OmanGrecian]

Thanks Oman. The whole world is hoping for some 'good' news from Italy, given you can't trust anything official coming out of China.
Is it still concentrated in the North - have Rome and the South slightly escaped thus far?

So far, yes. There have been daily cases down here, but nothing like what was seen in the North. There were concerns that this would spread South quite dramatically, but this is yet to be seen. The main concern down here is the high tensions building and people raiding stores. The South is relatively poor and people are running out of money and food.

 

[RedPaul]

Thanks. I guess the cash dominated economy the South must make this even more difficult.
Hopefully they will be able to end the extreme lockdown soon.

 

[DB9]

Some positive news from Italy, well I say positive, but people are still dying. The daily death rate is the lowest it has been in 2 weeks and has dropped for the past 3 days. There has also been a drop in the number of people in hospital.

The lockdown is starting to show why it was needed.

And according to reports a 104 year old Italian woman has survived Covid-19, Good news but shows this virus is very unpredictable

 

[IndoMike]

This might be a daft question, but the virus doesn't disappear.during the lockdown : it just doesn't have anyone to infect, right?
So when we all crawl out from under the bed, we can be infected by the surviving virus carriers of the first wave, right? Or does the virus have a specific lifespan within a body and then die?
In effect the lockdown, will have to continue until a vaccine is found, no?

 

[Legohead]

We thank you for staying in.

Not quite what I meant but I understand some will misinterpret.

 

[Spoonz Red E]

This might be a daft question, but the virus doesn't disappear.during the lockdown : it just doesn't have anyone to infect, right?
So when we all crawl out from under the bed, we can be infected by the surviving virus carriers of the first wave, right? Or does the virus have a specific lifespan within a body and then die?
In effect the lockdown, will have to continue until a vaccine is found, no?

My understanding is:
Bearing in mind that some people can have the virus without symptoms.
If you had the virus while on lockdown and survived then it should have run its course and you may hopefully be immune.
If you didn't have it while on lockdown you are still succeptible to infection when restrictions are lifted.
That's where the antigen test will come into its own to get some solid data.

The current data suggests that for herd immunity, 2 thirds of the population will need to be infected to develop the antibodies before an uncontrolled mixing of the population does not mean a rise in cases. The best chance to do this quickly is with a vaccine but it can also be managed longterm with controlled exposure.

The main purpose of lockdown was to 'squash the curve' and not overwhelm the NHS.
Testing could help identify 'hotspots' and immunity so there could be zonal/filtered lockdowns and immunity passporting down the road.

The other factor is if there are advances in the treatment of the disease ICU patient levels can come down.
That could take pressure off the NHS even if the case numbers remain high.

Testing is the key and it's a shame we've lagged behind on this.

 

[geoffwp]

I think it approximates how our government was handling this until a fortnight ago when it lost its nerve with public pressure to follow what most the world is doing. Lots on the internet such as this:

Coronavirus: Why hasn't Sweden gone into lockdown over COVID-19 pandemic?

The nation's reported case rate has been similar to that of the UK, yet the Swedish government has not implemented a shutdown.

news.sky.com

I wonder how much of a factor population density is in terms of the virus spreading. Sweden's density is just over 57 per as mile while uk is over a thousand.