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UK Lockdown

DB9

Very well known Exeweb poster
Joined
Jun 19, 2005
Messages
24,699
Location
Hampshire. Heart's in N Devon
Locked down
 

Rosencrantz

Very well known Exeweb poster
Joined
Jul 12, 2019
Messages
10,249
Location
Tiverton
Locked down
Had to. Too many people not taking this seriously enough.
 

Spoonz Red E

Very well known Exeweb poster
Joined
Apr 21, 2004
Messages
12,381
Location
Comfortably mid-table
For those who may still think that this is more or less the flu and don't get what all the fuss is about.
The need for a lock down is due to the infection rate (the number of people likely to have the virus passed on to them by someone infected)
Flu infection rate = 1.3 COVID-19=3.0

This is the maths for disease growth if infection is totally unchecked.

After 5 levels of infection
Flu = 4 cases COVID-19 = 243 cases

After 10 levels of infection
Flu = 14 cases COVID-19 = 59,049 cases

Then also factor in that the fact that the COVID-19 mortality rate is 10 times that of flu.

 
Last edited:

spanky

exeweb.com eejit
Staff member
Joined
Mar 10, 2008
Messages
3,557
For those who may still think that this is more or less the flu and don't get what all the fuss is about.
The need for a lock down is due to the infection rate (the number of people likely to have the virus passed on to them by someone infected)
Flu infection rate = 1.3 COVID-19=3.0

This is the maths for disease growth if infection is totally unchecked.

After 5 levels of infection
Flu = 4 cases COVID-19 = 243 cases

After 10 levels of infection
Flu = 14 cases COVID-19 = 59,049 cases

Then also factor in that the fact that the COVID-19 mortality rate is 10 times that of flu.

Wrong Spoons. Thats the infections only on the 10th level. It's 88k if you count the previous 9 as well.
 

Spoonz Red E

Very well known Exeweb poster
Joined
Apr 21, 2004
Messages
12,381
Location
Comfortably mid-table
Wrong Spoons. Thats the infections only on the 10th level. It's 88k if you count the previous 9 as well.
Fair enough Spanky.

My phrase 'disease growth' was intended to imply the growth in a direct line from the first infected person.
I would have been better to have put it as a 'ratio'.
But you're right - the cumulative numbers are even higher.

The 80% national infection rate that was talked about a couple of weeks ago wouldn't take very long at all.
 
Last edited:

Legohead

Banned
Joined
Jan 28, 2016
Messages
6,762
So it can be slowed but how can it be stopped? :unsure:
 

geoffwp

Very well known Exeweb poster
Joined
Apr 1, 2004
Messages
12,349
Location
Zen city
What I'm going to miss most is taking my grandson up to the woods where we started building a den but have yet to finish it. I suddenly miss his constant questions and the Why? that comes after every answer.
 

ramone

Well-known Exeweb poster
Joined
Nov 9, 2007
Messages
7,279
Location
If i had to agree with you we would both be wrong
Had a customer asking if I could go fix one of his sales vehicles today , I said unless its essential then no I wont be able to fix it !
Another Covidiot who seems to think he is going to be selling vehicles during this period.
 

Anonymous

Well-known Exeweb poster
Joined
Oct 22, 2008
Messages
6,019
Location
in yr internats
Record levels of food waste in Devon this month. Great job.
 

i8cornwall

Active member
Joined
Jul 2, 2006
Messages
2,745
Had a customer asking if I could go fix one of his sales vehicles today , I said unless its essential then no I wont be able to fix it !
Another Covidiot who seems to think he is going to be selling vehicles during this period.
I’m a delivery driver of parts for vehicles, been told by the boss we are essential so have to be in work or take it as unpaid leave/use holiday.

Utter joke to be honest.
 
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