Predict L2 2019/20

[Jason H]

END OF SEPTEMBER UPDATE:

With the table starting to settle down a bit and teams beginning to move more towards their "correct" positions, scoring is generally looking better this month.

Out in the lead is Avening Posse with 162, ahead of our Portsmouth supporting chum sign of the chimes with 164 and burtiew in third with 168.

We have a clear wooden spoonist currently, and it's Norger ORy with 226, trailing Red & White (214) by 12 points and another small gap to StudentGrecian on 210.

Several teams continue to confound at either end, and we have gaps of 10 or more places for the following: Cambridge (median 21st, actual 11th), Cheltenham (median 21st, actual 3rd), Crewe (median 18th, actual 2nd), Grimsby (median 17.5, actual 7th), Mansfield (median 2.5, actual 19th), Salford (median 6.5, actual 18th) and Scunthorpe (median 5th, actual 23rd).

 

[Jason H]

END OF OCTOBER UPDATE:

Seemingly a massive improvement in scoring this month as teams are now moving towards where one would have expected them to be (with some anomalies as always). Most people have seen their scores drop - in fact the score of 168 that was good enough for third last month would now only be good enough for joint 25th!

We have a new leader in Banksy with 148, while sign of the chimes remains in 2nd with 150, ahead of last month's leader Avening Posse with 152.

At the other end nobody now has more than the dreaded 200 points, the bottom two have swapped places - Red & White is now bottom with 198 behind ORy on 194, with rifraf completing the bottom three on 188.

No team is currently exactly where predicted, although Grimsby (median 17.5th, actual 18th) would qualify by rounding. Five teams are doing either much better or much worse than expected: Cheltenham (median 21st, actual 3rd), Crewe (median 18th, actual 1st), Mansfield (median 2.5th, actual 14th), Scunthorpe (median 5th, actual 22nd) and Walsall (median 10th, actual 21st).

 

[Jason H]

END OF NOVEMBER UPDATE:

A bit of a stop-start month due to the FA Cup saw limited movement in the league table but it did lead to some changes in the scoring.

Back into the lead is Avening Posse with 140, while sign of the chimes remains rooted to 2nd place with 146. Banksy completes a criss-cross with AP for 3rd place with 150.

Our tail-ender Red & White has smashed back through the 200 point barrier with 206, while ORy remains second from bottom with 190. The bottom three is as you were with rifraf on 188.

One team is exactly where predicted - Newport (11th), while three sides are 0.5 places away from the median placing - Colchester (actual 10th, median 10.5th), Exeter (actual 4th, median 4.5th) and Grimsby (actual 18th, median 17.5th).

On the other hand six teams are 10+ places better or worse than predicted: Cheltenham (actual 5th, median 21st), Crewe (actual 3rd, median 18th), Macclesfield (actual 14th, median 24th), Mansfield (actual 15th, median 2.5th), Scunthorpe (actual 16th, median 5th) and Walsall (actual 22nd, median 10th).

 

[Banksy]

How I managed to get to third let alone a brief spell in top place is a mystery!
Thanks for your hard work in running the competition Jason.

 

[Avening Posse]

Permission to get excited ?

 

[andrew p long]

Permission to get excited ?

You win nothing in December.
It’s a marathon not a sprint.
Take one game at a time...

( he says enviously)

 

[Avening Posse]

You win nothing in December.
It’s a marathon not a sprint.
Take one game at a time...

( he says enviously)

Okay, I was feeling a bit shaky this morning anyway, so will give the cartwheel a miss

 

[SEA Grecian]

I'm still waiting for Mansfield, Orient and Scunthorpe to surge up the table and lead me to glory!

 

[Jason H]

Apologies for missing out on the update last month - as my spreadsheet is on my work computer by the time I returned from an extended break there had been two rounds of games in January already.

Anyway:

Since I last visited this in December there has been a lot of movement which has in the main had a positive effect on the scoring. A couple of key things have been Forest Green sinking like a stone and Macclesfield's points deduction, which have put both clubs closer to where we thought they would be. Walsall's recovery too has lowered the points totals, although we're still waiting for Mansfield to wake up.

At the top it's still Avening Posse leading the way with a very impressive 120 points. Moving into second place is our very welcome guest from oop north, les.gtfc with 122 points. Rounding out the top three is grecian-near-hell with 124 before a gap to the chasing pack.

One crumb of comfort for Red & White at the bottom is that at least he's back below 200 points with 186. There is then an 18 point gap to the next two, who are Snoop Fog and Billy The Fish.

There are now three teams placing exactly level with their median predicted finish: Forest Green, Morecambe and Newport, while four teams are more than 10 places above or below their predicted finish: Cheltenham (+13), Crewe (+15), Mansfield (-18.5!) and Scunthorpe (-11).

 

[SEA Grecian]

I'm still waiting for Mansfield, Orient and Scunthorpe to surge up the table and lead me to glory!

Still waiting!