Politics Today

[Anonymous]

The only thing that can unite the country after time is leaving the EU.

Hahaha... you wot mate?

It's not uniting me thats for damn sure. I am European more than I am British, so ram that up your spout.

 

[arthur]

So your point is now that because we use referenda so sparingly, there hasn’t been enough of them to judge whether we should’ve ignored them or not?

If you look at the history of referendums in this country there were two Devolution referendums in 1979 and the EU one in 1975 that were "lost" , i.e. nothing need to change so there was nothing to be implemented.

Then there were the two devolution ones in 1997 and the extra Welsh one in 2011 which both "won". However the implications of the answers were clear, the government had planned for a Yes vote and people had voted on the issue in front of them rather than on how angry they felt. Implementing the results was straightforward.

Then there are the two recent ones which were both highly emotive and where the implications of a Yes vote and how to implement it were far from clear at the time of voting. These are the Scottish indyref and our friend from 2016. The first of these "lost" and nothing needed to change.

So we have had only one referendum in this country where a momentous decision was made which had to be implemented even though no-one had the faintest idea how to do it. The fact that Farage's version of Brexit has morphed from "we'll easily get a good deal" "Norway isn't in the EU and they seem quite happy" to "Only a clean break on WTO terms will do" and that if in 2106 Johnson had been presented with the withdrawal agreement he's just negotiated he'd have called it a sell out, show that what people were promised and what they are getting are completely different things. In such circumstances a confirmatory referendum, to ensure that the final outcome is what people want, is surely not a bad idea.

Just as if the Indy ref had been Yes the the final settlement should have been put to the Scottish people for ratification - "This is what independence will look like and cost - do you still want to proceed?"

 

[arthur]

PS I forgot the Good Friday ref in NI. This, of course, was a referendum to ratify something that had already been negotiated so was much clearer and more straightforward

 

[Anonymous]

So lets assume we do end up with Boris's deal being enacted in full.

We would then have to start trade negotiations with the EU (again). The EU, taken as a whole is by far the UK’s largest single trading partner. In 2018, UK exports to the EU were £289 billion (46% of all UK exports). UK imports from the EU were £345 billion (54% of all UK imports).

The UK had an overall trade deficit of -£64 billion with the EU in 2018. A surplus of £29 billion on trade in services was outweighed by a deficit of -£93 billion on trade in goods.

If I were the EU negotiator I would refuse a trade deal on services. It would force the financial services sector and associated fintech business to move their industry focus into the EU and thereby further increase the trade deficit. If the EU plays this correctly they could make us a vassal state simply through economic debt.

Edit: source for the brexitwats - https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7851

 

[Mr Jinx]

Leaving won't unite the country nor will a 2nd ref. I have no idea what will but there is a lot of bad blood at the moment and leaving won't solve that

It depends largely on what happens after we Leave (if we ever do). If the sky doesn't actually cave in and things are largely where they were if not (dare I speak it) even a bit better, then it'll go a long way to make the thing history for lots of people and we'll all move on to the next dilemma.

 

[arthur]

It depends largely on what happens after we Leave (if we ever do). If the sky doesn't actually cave in and things are largely where they were if not (dare I speak it) even a bit better, then it'll go a long way to make the thing history for lots of people and we'll all move on to the next dilemma.

During the transition period nothing will change (not even the arguments). "After we leave" doesn't begin until January 2021. The summer holidays will be interesting, if people have to queue for hours at passport control and buy medical insurance. More profound effects will be a longer time in coming...

 

[Avening Posse]

So lets assume we do end up with Boris's deal being enacted in full.

We would then have to start trade negotiations with the EU (again). The EU, taken as a whole is by far the UK’s largest single trading partner. In 2018, UK exports to the EU were £289 billion (46% of all UK exports). UK imports from the EU were £345 billion (54% of all UK imports).

The UK had an overall trade deficit of -£64 billion with the EU in 2018. A surplus of £29 billion on trade in services was outweighed by a deficit of -£93 billion on trade in goods.

If I were the EU negotiator I would refuse a trade deal on services. It would force the financial services sector and associated fintech business to move their industry focus into the EU and thereby further increase the trade deficit. If the EU plays this correctly they could make us a vassal state simply through economic debt.

Edit: source for the brexitwats - https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7851

I'm not sure big business in Europe would agree with that. The big commercial players will want to keep on earning to the max, and we are a big export market. Makes no sense to make it difficult but we shall see

 

[Mr Jinx]

The summer holidays will be interesting, if people have to queue for hours at passport control and buy medical insurance.

Which is pretty much what we do already!

 

[Anonymous]

I'm not sure big business in Europe would agree with that. The big commercial players will want to keep on earning to the max, and we are a big export market. Makes no sense to make it difficult but we shall see

They don't get a choice! If the EU decide to refuse a service trade deal with the UK, they literally don't have a say in the matter. It's not the EU banks who care, it's the US and other multinationals like HSBC, Citi and the big 4 who are going to need to act. They either have to move or accept the greatly increased cost of doing business. The write down associated with moving operations locations is not particularly high for banking and fintech. It's a no brainer.
The service companies can appeal to the EU to approve a deal as much as they like but if the EU negotiators know what they are doing (and I believe they do,) they will realise they have them over a barrel. Don't forget the EU have no problem in going after big business, they've stung Google for $9.3B just on some wishy-washy antitrust basis.

 

[tavyred]

Hahaha... you wot mate?

It's not uniting me thats for damn sure. I am European more than I am British, so ram that up your spout.

There will be always be the extremists, post Brexit people like you will replace the bitter bloke sat in the corner of the pub dripping about Europe and instead it’ll be you moaning about Brexit. The rest of us will get on with the rest of our lives.
BTW, you can’t claim to more European than the average leave voter, you can however say that you cherish your EU citizenship more that your British one and that you wish to keep it. Speaking personally, I was born in Europe, am ethically European and am proud of our Western European traditions. That said, I no longer want my European country to be part of the EU.