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Bittners a Legend

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A lot of assumptions in there, some being quite far from the mark. Let's face it, anything can happen. I am thinking that if a tie up between Tories and TBP can be done then it's Boris's in the bag. But the way things are moving, I'm not sure that Tories/TBP will do a tie up. If they can't, I just don't know what'll happen. Perhaps another hung parliament where no alliance to govern can be formed. Another Referendum would be close and the same old arguments emerge. Then what? Best of three.

I think the biggest problem is that given the way things have fractured, First Past the Post is simply no longer tenable. 40 years ago things were simple: we had two main parties with a sliver in the middle, much like the US. Since Scotland splintered off and UKIP/TBP has emerged, the whole thing has become multi headed, much like European governments that have between 5 and 10 different parties where coalitions are the norm. Rather than have another GE or Referendum at this juncture, perhaps we should reform to full PR first then take things from there. Just sayin. Not that that would ever happen.
Agree lots of assumptions but don't agree any are necessarily far form the mark.

If the Tories do a deal with TBP then:

a) Johnson will still be PM
b) Tories will be pursuing No Deal Brexit

Those two things will likely:

a) Prove untenable for many centre-right, one nation Tories who potentially vote Lib Dem (or don't vote)
b) Lead to the left-leaning, anti No-Deal parties working together in tight seats

I don't think it's unreasonable to assume most, of course not all, fervant pro-No Deal voters probably did turn out earlier in the year. Doubt there is much more No Deal support beyond that.

Agree with you that FPTP is not a system that will easily fix our current problems and we would all benefit from more conciliation. I accept I am biased towards Remain but I don't see how such conciliation is possible when the "MSM" and RW Tories continue to tell such blatant lies. Obviously accept the left is guilty of it too.
 

Mr Jinx

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Included in your 33 are the conservatives who are fans of Clarke Soames Davidson etc. Somehow I don't think they will be rushing to support the current dysfunctional regime
The 33% was polled after Boris was made PM, so I can't see many of those ebbing away. Like I say though, we shall soon see...
 

IndoMike

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Johnson is managing to make the centre-left/left more united than they have ever been. This makes it more likely that they will collaborate in the battle against Johnson and Farage. Imo Johnson's credibility and performance will diminish a little every day. His standard line "BREXIT October 31st" isn't going to be valid much longer.
 

Mr Jinx

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I confess to not being sure about this, but imo the logical thing would be for the current PM to continue until the GE result.
I think the Grand Plan idea is a bit of a cop out. It's something commentators discuss across the Pond : all Trump's fark ups are really part of a Grand Plan. Yeah, right.
It depends if you think that Boris and Cummings are just completely winging it or whether they've sat down some time ago and war gamed it all mapping out absolutely every eventuality leaving nothing off the table.

Given that even the Daily Mail have done the latter, I suspect they have put quite a bit of thought into it. Something along the lines of, OK so you want to block the election, then we'll do x, then if you do y, we'll do z...and so on and so forth.

Corbyn thinks he's playing a blinder blocking a GE but I am waiting for the response and we'll find out soon enough what that is.

Then again perhaps I'm completely wrong and they are just making it up as they go along.
 

Jason H

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It depends if you think that Boris and Cummings are just completely winging it or whether they've sat down some time ago and war gamed it all mapping out absolutely every eventuality leaving nothing off the table.

Given that even the Daily Mail have done the latter, I suspect they have put quite a bit of thought into it. Something along the lines of, OK so you want to block the election, then we'll do x, then if you do y, we'll do z...and so on and so forth.

Corbyn thinks he's playing a blinder blocking a GE but I am waiting for the response and we'll find out soon enough what that is.

Then again perhaps I'm completely wrong and they are just making it up as they go along.
To put this into context - Cummings, Johnson and co didn't just wing it to win the referendum. Quite the opposite. Once again recommended reading = All Out War by Tim Shipman.
 

elginCity

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Then again perhaps I'm completely wrong and they are just making it up as they go along.
Arthur mentioned a couple of days the body language of Johnson and Gove at the press conference of the morning after, it spoke volumes. Brexit was never planned for, or supposed to happen. The ref was a means to lure kippers on board and appease the ERG headbangers, but maintain the status quo.

Ever since that day, the plan is to appear to ‘deliver’ Brexit means Brexit, but don’t, all without risking blood on the streets. Ensure we’re all bored to tears with it all before ultimately pulling the plug. Revocation will happen, they’re just going to have to be really creative in ‘delivering’ it.
 

arthur

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So, there won't be a GE until November. We can park the predictions about the outcome of that for now and turn our crystal balls to the next month...

Parliament is prorogued and instead we have party conferences to entertain us for few weeks.

Then Johnson goes to Brussels to negotiate the deal based on his proposals that are so secret no-one is even aware of them. In the unlikely event that he agrees a deal it is likely to be little more than a watered down version of May's so the spartans in the ERG will vote against it (and have the whip withdrawn from them as well which will leave the Conservative Party looking rather smaller than it used to be). It won't get through parliament so he still has no deal (see below)

More likely that he doesn't get a deal and so is legally bound to ask for an extension. If he refuses, he could be impeached (according to Peston) which will be fun. (I''m not sure how impeachment works in the UK btw)

What he might do is ask for the extension and in the November election make it clear that he did this under duress and promise in his manifesto to leave the EU within seven days of forming a government. Then the election really is a referendum on No Deal....
 

Oldsmobile-88

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In RaWZ we trust....Amen.
It was. I nearly had to turn it off. Bad manners, rudeness, intolerance, excessive shouting, interruptions. failure to listen to and respect the views of others. Ian Blackford particularly guilty and I don't think this was one of the best performances from Fiona the Bruce, apart from skewering Lady Nugee. Ian Dale (who spoke very calmly) was stopped from asking matey in the audience (who was allowed an extended over long rant) a question.
I always listen to it on R5L & did turn it off last night after about 25 mins..Dreadful,patronising nonsense from both sides of the debate.
Too many exhibitionists in the audience as well by the sound of it.

Caught up with Peaky Blinders on ifollow for a bit of light relief.
 

spanky

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It depends if you think that Boris and Cummings are just completely winging it or whether they've sat down some time ago and war gamed it all mapping out absolutely every eventuality leaving nothing off the table.

Given that even the Daily Mail have done the latter, I suspect they have put quite a bit of thought into it. Something along the lines of, OK so you want to block the election, then we'll do x, then if you do y, we'll do z...and so on and so forth.

Corbyn thinks he's playing a blinder blocking a GE but I am waiting for the response and we'll find out soon enough what that is.

Then again perhaps I'm completely wrong and they are just making it up as they go along.
Some really good points in there Jinxy.

I'm not so sure that his brother's resignation, a fainting Police officer and mass "stepping downs" was part of the plan.

IMHO, and I'm no fan of Corbyn, far from it, is that they have made a couple of assumptions that have turned out to be horrifically wrong.#

First assumption was that Lib Dems, SNP etc wouldn't be able to row in behind Corbyn. He was too ineffectual.

Second assumption was that the Tory rebellion would be far less than it was, and that, like him, they were careerists that would conform when that was threatened.

Both of these have spectaculary back fired.

In addition, there is a very large, silent Tory vote (we always talk about them, don't say much, don't get involved, just trundle out every 4 or 5 years to the polling booth and vote Tory) that will not be lapping up all this shiite. As mentioned earlier, the longer they can keep him in No 10 but without power, the more that is likely to favour the opposition.

I can see the plan now. Force the extension. Election after extension. Brexit Party eats him alive, or he goes full No Deal, which will make the moderates melt away. The No Dealers are essentially already with the Brexit Party. There is no gain for him there.
 
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