General Election - 8thJune

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Avening Posse

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Labour clearly only have themselves to blame. Out the door for quite a few of them in Westminster this time. How many remainers will vote Lib Dem ?.....I suspect quite a lot, and from both the left and the right, but how many is anybody's guess. Interested to see how many vote SNP this time round, I suspect she isn't as popular as last time but with labour being such a dogs dinner I'm not sure what the alternative is up there ?
 

Alistair20000

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I'm not entirely convinced. I think the SNP will lose some seats, they're not as popular as they believe themselves to be. The Conservatives may even double their base there ...
On paper Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk is the Scottish Conservatives easiest target seat in Sweatieland but it was a Lib Dem seat before the SNP took it in 2015 so I find it hard to read.
 

Mr Jinx

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Well Jinxster, you did me a good 'un with our respective projections in 2015 on the number of Lib Dem seats. This time I am going 24-34 with 15-25 gains. I think Labour may do a bit better than you think 30 - 35 losses, no seats for UKIP unless Rubber Face comes back to have a go in a Labour seat, possible clean sweep for Jimmy Crankie and a Tory majority of less than 50. 1 or 2 Greens.

Are we on ?
OK, I think I may have been a bit out in my calculations and 100-120 majority was a bit generous. That said, I think 50 is too low.

Let's say, under 50 you win, over 50 I win. Deal?
 

Hants_red

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May too cowardly to go head to head with Jeremy Corbyn in a live debate! :)
 

Hants_red

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We could with CPS getting on with the charges against 30 individuals for election fraud. At the moment it looks like those Tory MPs will be safe until after this election is complete.
 

Hants_red

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Here's a good reminder for those that voted to remain for vote for anyone other than the Tories, we are the enemy!

 

grecIAN Harris

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Well Jinxster, you did me a good 'un with our respective projections in 2015 on the number of Lib Dem seats. This time I am going 24-34 with 15-25 gains. I think Labour may do a bit better than you think 30 - 35 losses, no seats for UKIP unless Rubber Face comes back to have a go in a Labour seat, possible clean sweep for Jimmy Crankie and a Tory majority of less than 50. 1 or 2 Greens.

Are we on ?
I wouldn't be so sure on that. There seems to be a lot of mixed messages about what people want in Scotland. Some want to stay part of Britain and be out of Europe. Some want out of Britain and stay in Europe. Then there's those who want out on both fronts and those who want to stay in on both fronts. It's the latter that will cause pundits most consternation on which way they will fall. Which flag do they want nail their colours to the most as they'll lose one way or the other?
 

Terryhall

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Be interesting to see whether the Lib Dems quiet work at constituency level will feed through to a stronger performance at the ballots this time around. Also whether the recent UKIP defections affect their vote share.

I will be voting (registered overseas voter) but the constituency in which I am registered is one of the safest seats in the country, so whatever I decide won't really move the needle in any meaningful way.
 

Mr Jinx

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I wouldn't be so sure on that. There seems to be a lot of mixed messages about what people want in Scotland. Some want to stay part of Britain and be out of Europe. Some want out of Britain and stay in Europe. Then there's those who want out on both fronts and those who want to stay in on both fronts. It's the latter that will cause pundits most consternation on which way they will fall. Which flag do they want nail their colours to the most as they'll lose one way or the other?
Scotland is lost to the SNP, perhaps forever. That's why I think Al is optimistic thinking the LDs will gain up to 25 seats. The Dems are not going to get any more seats back in Scotland, neither are they going to make any roads back into the South West (which was largely pro Leave). Heck, they may even lose North Norfolk and Richmond could go back to Tory. They're only going to win seats in cities like Bristol, Bath, Oxford & London. That said, I'd like to see St Vince back in the HOC - I've missed the old codger.

On another note - Do you think Bradshaw is safe? Reckon he might have lost a bit of sleep last night!
 

Swanaldo

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Roxburgh & Selkirk...was a Lib Dem seat before the SNP took it in 2015 so I find it hard to read.
David Steel's stomping ground back in the day, probably some Lib Dem sentiment lingering there.
 
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Alistair20000

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On another note - Do you think Bradshaw is safe? Reckon he might have lost a bit of sleep last night!
I think he has a decent personal vote and Exeter is a university city now where the Tories struggle and the Lib Dems have never established a decent enough vote to challenge. Short of a complete Labour meltdown I think Ben will hold on.
 

DB9

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Evening Standard reports Osbourne to quit as MP, Guess him being the editor they should know! Well gloves off for the surprise 2017 snap election, Tories taking great advantage of a crap opposition, Corbyn will hopefully quit on June 9th then perhaps a decent opposition will give May and her lot a decent fight of things.
 

Colesman Ballz

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Evening Standard reports Osbourne to quit as MP, Guess him being the editor they should know! Well gloves off for the surprise 2017 snap election, Tories taking great advantage of a crap opposition, Corbyn will hopefully quit on June 9th then perhaps a decent opposition will give May and her lot a decent fight of things.
Labour will never gain a majority in the foreseeable future, unless it can regain the upper hand from the SNP, in Scotlan. It took forty years for the Liberal Democrats to rise from a handful of seats under Thorpe in 1970, to the verge of a breakthrough in 2010. Then Clegg crucially .lost a few seats (when winning a few would have offered the opportunity of forming a broad coalition Government}. Instead, he and his cronies jumped at the chance of a little bit of personal power and leapt into bed with the Tories, reneged on manifesto pledges over tuition fees, and Cable who spoke a lot of financial sense, tgotally mismanaged the sell off of Royal Mail, by relying on "swiftly broken Gentlemen's agreements" with the financial sharks in the City. Could take another 40 years to recover. UKIP were a one trick pony, and hence a spent force.

Unless we ditch this stupid first past the post electoral system,, we are headed fofr years of woe.

Vive the Revolution !,
 
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Bittners a Legend

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I think he has a decent personal vote and Exeter is a university city now where the Tories struggle and the Lib Dems have never established a decent enough vote to challenge. Short of a complete Labour meltdown I think Ben will hold on.
With a 8 June election date I'm not sure there will necessarily be that many students around (and sober) to vote but I agree he should be safe enough. I despise Corbyn and McDonnell but he's been a decent local MP as far as I'm concerned and deserves my vote regardless.

While the Labour leadership is clearly a total disaster I think May is going to struggle to get a large majority. There are a lot of narrow seats and the anger around Brexit, NHS and schools is still strong enough that there will be some inevitable un-official centre-left tactical voting in tight seats. Additionally I think a lot of MPs will contest this election on local records and personal promises and just remove Corbyn completely from the equation. Given that literally nobody expects him to be PM and highly unlikely to be around by June 10 I think persuading people to vote on local issues and on local records may save Labour from total annihilation.

The key test will be how many UKIP and working class Northern votes she can capture by making this election about Brexit - if that narrative doesn't hold strong I think it will be much closer than people think even though she will comfortably win the most votes.
 

Jason H

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According to Anna Soubry, Ken Clarke is planning to stand, despite having previously stated he wouldn't stand in 2020. Assuming he does stand and is elected, he'll be almost 82 by the 2022 election.
 

Mr Jinx

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According to Anna Soubry, Ken Clarke is planning to stand, despite having previously stated he wouldn't stand in 2020. Assuming he does stand and is elected, he'll be almost 82 by the 2022 election.
...conversely Gideon is standing down (rightly imho). As is Iain Wright (Lab MP Hartlepool) which is rather cowardly imho - wonder if Fromage is tempted by Mandelson's former seat?

According to Anna Soubry, Ken Clarke is planning to stand, despite having previously stated he wouldn't stand in 2020. Assuming he does stand and is elected, he'll be almost 82 by the 2022 election.
Brexit will have given him a coronary long before '22.
 
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