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Where's the incentive?

Legohead

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Jan 28, 2016
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Man City are 4/1 to qualify tonight against Liverpool in the CL. In a nutshell they've no chance so surely they should be more 40/1? Who the heck is going to part with any money at 4/1 for a bet that is extremely likely to lose?

Happens a lot this i've noticed. You get teams 2-0 down with about 15 minutes left and the odds are about 50/1 when they should really be 500/1 for the amount of times a team 2-0 down with 15 minutes to go wins.
 

Legohead

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I meant really to clarify the point that a price or 4/1 doesn't reflect the chances of the event happening (ie Man City qualifying) and it should be much, much bigger.
 

StroudGrecian

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I'm no expert but don't the odds simply reflect the amount of money staked rather than actual chances of something happening?
 

Legohead

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I'm no expert but don't the odds simply reflect the amount of money staked rather than actual chances of something happening?
TBH Stroudy i'm not sure myself but you could be right. I know generally the prices get shorter as more and more money is put on but i would doubt there will be many people out there putting anything significant on a City passage at 4/1. Even 14/1 is pretty dire odds and wouldn't tempt me.

You could be right though.

Bizarre thing is that the world and his wife are taking a City win on the night as a given. Liverpool are well capable of winning on the night and the game could just set it up nicely for them. I'd much rather take the 11/2 about Liverpool to win in 90.
 
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Legohead

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Jan 28, 2016
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Usual betting night for me. Tipped Liverpool above but decided not to back them and then cash out on an acca for a fiver which came up for just over a hundred quid. Oh well, always another day.

Cracking result in the Roma v Barca game.
 
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