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Thread: The End of Season Run In

  1. #1

    The End of Season Run In

    I felt at the time that any hopes of making the autos disappeared with our failure to win our home games against Carlisle and Vale.

    However notwithstanding this since the Mansfield debacle we have picked up points both away and at SJP and are again back well in the running for a place in the top seven.

    Eight games still to go and the playoffs yes but the autos only if we can continue to perform as we did against Swindon and others around us, in particular Wycombe and Notts County, drop points.

    I have tried some crystal ball gazing. Whilst a number of the teams in the top seven still have to play one another the run ins are very similar with Luton and Swindon probably having the easiest.

    Both Yeovil and Colchester could do as some favours as in the case of Yeovil they still have to play eight of the current top ten teams and Colchester six.

    Looking at each teams run in there are very few obvious games where you would predict defeats but quite a few where the points could well end up being shared. However as we all know football is played on grass and not paper so there will no doubt be a number of unexpected results like this weekend when both Mansfield and Notts County have lost to Clubs fighting for their EFL lives.

    However returning to my crystal ball if everything did go to form it would seem likely that the end of season table would look something like this:

    Accrington 93
    Luton 91
    Wycombe 84
    Coventry 82
    Exeter City 81
    Notts County 80
    Mansfield 77

    Swindon and Lincoln just missing out on 76 and 74 points respectively.

    As for us another ride on the playoff roller coaster including a trip to play Notts County at Meadow Lane and hopefully a return to Wembley and equally hopefully second time lucky and a repeat of our previous Conference experience.

  2. #2

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    Re: The End of Season Run In

    Sexton (or somebody). Could you post our last 8 games and what you think we'll get? I think we'll make the playoffs, but the autos does appear tough, with teams like Wycombe and Coventry having similar aspirations. The above example has us only three points behind Wycombe in third. If we could scrape up an extra three somewhere, it would be nice.

  3. #3

    Re: The End of Season Run In



    I thought this sets the picture and it looks like Notts County have the toughest run-in

  4. #4
    Anonymous's Avatar
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    Re: The End of Season Run In

    I came up with:

    Accrington Stanley +34 98
    Luton +53 95
    Wycombe +20 83
    ----------------------------------
    Coventry +19 81
    Exeter +14 81
    Mansfield +20 79
    Notts County +19 76

  5. #5

    Re: The End of Season Run In

    I don't fancy our chances of going up via the play-offs – Coventry and Mansfield both look stronger than us, God knows what's happened to Notts County mind.

    I'm cautiously optimistic of making automatics. If we beat Lincoln (that's a big 'if'), we'll be a point behind Wycombe with, in my opinion, an easier run-in. I wouldn't count on Notts County remaining in the play-off places with their run-in. Coventry are finishing very strong, and may well leapfrog us. Wouldn't be too surprised to see Accrington collapse a bit either.

  6. #6

    Re: The End of Season Run In

    96 - Guaranteed Champions 2018
    95 -
    94 -
    93 -
    92 - Predicted Champions 2018
    91 - Guaranteed Automatics 2018
    90 - Champions 2015
    89 - Champions 2012
    88 -
    87 - Champions 2016, 2017
    86 - Guaranteed Play Offs 2018
    85 - Automatic Promotion 2016
    84 - Automatic Promotion 2012
    83 - Predicted Automatics 2018
    82 - Champions 2014
    81 -
    80 - Champions 2013
    79 -
    78 - Automatic Promotion 2017
    77 - Automatic Promotion 2013, 2014
    76 - Predicted Play Offs 2018
    75 -
    74 - Luton(39), Accrington(37)
    73 -
    72 -
    71 - Play Offs 2012
    70 - Play Offs 2016, 2017, Wycombe(39)
    ------------------------------------------------------------
    69 - Play Offs 2015
    68 - Play Offs 2013
    67 -
    66 - Notts County(39), Exeter(38)
    65 -
    64 - Coventry(38)
    63 - Play Offs 2014, Mansfield(38)
    -------------------------------------------------------------
    62 -
    61 - Lincoln(38)
    60 - Swindon(38)
    59 -
    58 -
    57 - Carlisle(39)

    Forthcoming fixtures:

    1st Luton(39) - 74 points. Colchester(A), Mansfield(H), Yeovil(A), Crewe(H), Carlisle(A), Forest Green(H), Notts County(A)
    2nd Accrington(37) - 74 points. Mansfield(A), Notts County(H), Colchester(A), Exeter(H), Wycombe(A), Yeovil(H), Newport(A), Lincoln(H), Swindon(A)
    3rd Wycombe(39) - 70 points. Notts County(A), Grimsby(H), Yeovil(A), Lincoln(A), Accrington(H), Chesterfield(A), Stevenage(H)
    ---------------------------------------------------
    4th Notts County(39) - 66 points. Wycombe(H), Accrington(A), Coventry(H), Colchester(A), Yeovil(H), Grimsby(A), Luton(H)
    5th Exeter(38) - 66 points. Lincoln(A), Cheltenham(H), Cambridge(A), Accrington(A), Chesterfield(H), Crawley(H), Stevenage(A), Colchester(H)
    6th Coventry(38) - 64 points. Newport(A), Yeovil(H), Notts County(A), Crawley(A), Stevenage(H), Lincoln(H), Cheltenham(A), Morecambe(H)
    7th Mansfield(38) - 63 points. Accrington(H), Luton(A), Crewe(H), Stevenage(A), Chesterfield(A), Port Vale(H), Yeovil(A), Crawley(H)
    --------------------------------------------------
    8th Lincoln(37) - 61 points. Exeter(H), Carlisle(A), Port Vale(A), Wycombe(H), Colchester(H), Coventry(A), Accrington(A), Yeovil(H),
    9th Swindon(38) - 60 points. Morecambe(H), Crawley(A), Carlisle(H), Yeovil(H), Newport(A), Grimsby(H), Colchester(A), Accrington(H)
    10th Carlisle(39) - 57 points. Cheltenham(A), Lincoln(H), Swindon(A), Morecambe(A), Luton(H), Port Vale(A), Newport(H)

  7. #7
    exeweb.com admin Hants_red's Avatar
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    Re: The End of Season Run In

    Is it too early to ask for a probability chart?

  8. #8
    Alistair20000's Avatar
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    Re: The End of Season Run In

    Predictions are hazardous, especially about the future; and even more so in regard to inconsistent League 2 football teams.

  9. #9

    Re: The End of Season Run In

    That's a pretty benign run-in for us other than Accy away with perhaps only Coventry having it easier. Accy don't have the easiest of jobs to get over the line. Having said that as ever anyone can beat anyone and there will be some odd results to come.

    We should be fearless - we can nick third or better here.

  10. #10
    Grecian-on-Tyne's Avatar
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    Re: The End of Season Run In

    Quote Originally Posted by Hants_red View Post
    Is it too early to ask for a probability chart?
    Nearly there ... I've had to rewrite by spreadsheets, but been working on them for the last couple of weeks, will hopefully post some details in the next couple of days, but I'm not sure if there will be charts or not ... the overhead of converting charts to .jpeg uploading them etc is a bit of a pain so might just be some tables of numbers.

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