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Thread: The Balanced Scorecard thread

  1. #111
    Terryhall's Avatar
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    Re: The Balanced Scorecard thread

    So a month ago, I said this - "So overall, a very positive December, and here's hoping we can build on that and have some consistency / improved home form into Jan." - we'll, I think we can safely say that we built on things!

    If December was the month where we potentially turned the corner, January is the month where we started the dash for the finish line. We (obviously) smashed the "target" of 4 points from the 4 remaining games in Jan, returning a whopping 5 wins from 5, plus another solid win at the weekend to start February in the right vein.

    The season is now in very pleasing positive balance - W15 D3 L11, GD +19, and with 48 points from 29 games we are averaging 1.65 points per game over the entire season so far. As we can see from the chart below, this now means that (finally) we have overtaken the "playoffs" benchmark (the fact that we are in 4th place suggests that it may take less than 75 points to finish in the playoffs this year... we shall see.) The eagle eyed amongst you will also spot a new benchmark added to the chart, the gold line represents the auto-promotion places (again this is based on the average points total needed to achieve 3rd place over the last 10 seasons - this works out at 83 points or 1.8 points per game averaged over the season as a whole).

    Despite being 4th and only 4 points off 3rd, our season average is still a bit short of the promotion benchmark - however recent form is clearly way ahead and if that continues through Feb, we could see ourselves in real contention (if we aren't already) - also as noted above, it may be that this year is a "below average" year and therefore we may not need to land the full 83 points to secure 3rd place. (The fact that we can even be discussing the possibility of this is testament of course to the great work the club and team has put in across this great run of form).

    In comparison to last seasons equivalent results, we are now 13 points ahead of where we were last time around - for the rest of Feb the equivalent from last season looks like this:

    A Plymouth - W 2-1
    A Notts County - W 4-1
    H Stevenage - D 3-3
    H Oxford - L 1-4

    So, although we're all hoping for the current run to continue, 7 points from 4 games would still see us at least keeping pace with last seasons form, and any more than that will see us continuing to close the gap on the auto-promotion benchmark. Exciting times but then the nature of this thread is such that it pleads for balance - not to get too despondent when the team is struggling, and not to get too carried away when the team is doing well - although right now that is very hard to do!


  2. #112
    exeweb.com mod Jason H's Avatar
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    Re: The Balanced Scorecard thread

    Just a quickie to add - of course we have a fifth further match in Feb, away to Crawley on the 28th.

  3. #113
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    Re: The Balanced Scorecard thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Jason H View Post
    Just a quickie to add - of course we have a fifth further match in Feb, away to Crawley on the 28th.
    Is a good point - last seasons equivalent to that was a 2-0 win, so the "aim" for Feb is revised to 10 points from 5 games (which again would see us taking 2 points per game and therefore still closing the gap on auto-promotion etc.)

  4. #114

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    Re: The Balanced Scorecard thread

    We just need to keep winning and automatic promotion will be assured.
    It's not complicated!

    astraltrader [Terry Dickens].

  5. #115
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    Re: The Balanced Scorecard thread

    Win our remaining 18 games and we go up as champions. Simples

  6. #116
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    Re: The Balanced Scorecard thread

    So, here comes the monthly stat attack for Feb. We ended the month with W2 D3 L1 with GD +2, so a positive balance for the month and 9 points from a possible 18. (nb - the eagle eyed amongst you will notice that the Crewe result was already included above, but don't worry I have not "double counted" this, it's just easier to post the full month results here)

    Overall for the season, we are now up to W16 D6 L12 GD +17 - it feels like a (very) long time since our GD has been this healthy and long may that continue. Our total of 54 points from 34 games means over the season we are averaging 1.59 points per game - which extrapolated out to 46 games would see us finish on 73 points - not enough to guarantee the playoffs in an average year, but as has been posted in other threads, this may prove to be a below average year so could still be enough this season.

    We are still ahead of our equivalent results from last season although the gap has now shrunk to 9 points - for next month, the equivalent fixtures will be

    A Hartlepool - W 2-0
    H Accrington - W 2-1
    H Dag & Red - L 1-2
    A Luton - L 1-4
    H Yeovil - W 3-2

    So, 9 points from 15 will see us at least maintain our "lead" over last seasons fixtures.

    Finally the chart which sets out where we are against the benchmark - despite the disappointment of defeat in the Devon derby and the subsequent run of draws, we are still more or less keeping pace with the "playoff" benchmark and we still have at least an outside chance of closing on the "auto promotion" benchmark if we can put another good run together.


  7. #117
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    Re: The Balanced Scorecard thread

    Too late to edit so apologies for the double post - I meant to add the other milestone that the chart shows - during Feb we also cleared the 50 point barrier meaning we now cannot fall below the "survival" benchmark on the chart - and although relegation is still a mathematical possibility, it would take some pretty unlikely results from here for us to drop 17 places down the table and to give away our 25 point lead on Leyton Orient in 23rd.

    #kissofdeath

  8. #118
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    Re: The Balanced Scorecard thread

    So, here comes what may be the final stat attack of the season (not sure it will be worth one end of April so this will look back at March, and forward at both April and May).

    Nobody needs me to tell them that our form has dipped and that March was disappointing, but hopefully our next matches can be more like the final 7 minutes or so of the Yeovil game, and less like the previous 88 minutes...

    First then, we ended March with W1, D2, L2 and GD -1. The first time in a while that we have not been at least balanced in the results, and the first time in a while that we have underperformed compared to last season. (The chart below also reflects this). The good news is that our impressive GD is significantly better than everyone else below us, which should give us a cushion compared to the chasing pack trying to knock us off our 7th-place perch. The bad news is that is because the teams that were below us with better GD have all leap-frogged us in recent weeks. That said, we are still overall "positive" for the season on W17 D8 L14 GD +16, and sitting in 7th, we are in control of our own destiny which is always a good place to be.

    Across April and May, we have 7 games left - Cambridge are the only team who have a game in hand on us that could realistically compete (in 12th place, but only 5 points behind at the moment) - their opponents in that game, Accrington have fallen away remarkably (15th and 10 points back). That game is tomorrow so by then we will have a clear picture of the chasing pack.

    Our games are below (also alongside last seasons "equivalent" fixture - already anticipating the posts pointing out my mistakes in these...!)

    A - Mansfield (equivalent - A v Mansfield, won 2-0)
    H - Newport (equivalent - H v Newport, drew 1-1)
    H - Barnet (equivalent - H v Barnet, drew 1-1)
    A - Cambridge (equivalent - A v Cambridge, won 1-0)
    H - Morecambe (equivalent - H v Morecambe, drew 1-1)
    A - Doncaster (equivelent - A v Northampton, lost 3-0)
    H - Carlisle (equivalent - H v Carlisle, drew 2-2)

    Matching last years equivalent results would return 10 points from those 7 games - we would finish on 69 - and this year that might turn out to be enough for 7th, but I think 71/72 would be more likely to get us into the playoffs - so I think we ought to be targeting 12 points from 7 games - 1.71 points per game - not an impossible target to achieve (for example, we will achieve this if we can match last years results but turn the Newport draw into a win...)

    Finally the chart - which is becoming increasingly meaningless as we reach the business end of the season and the benchmarks become more and more abstract - this shows we have dropped away from the "playoff" benchmark, but as posted above, this season is looking like being "below average" and we may not need 75 to secure 7th place. (On this point and in reply to the posts elsewhere suggesting that winning all our games would see us promoted automatically - I would tend to agree with John Williams posts on that point, that even if we do win all our remaining games and finish on 80 points, Doncaster only need 1 win from 7 to stay ahead of us, Plymouth only need 2 wins from 7, and Portsmouth only need the same very achievable 12 points from 7 games as we need to be sure of 7th - so at this stage I think it is very unlikely that we will go up automatically and we need to focus our attention on targeting the playoffs.


  9. #119
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    Re: The Balanced Scorecard thread

    Unfortunately I don't have time for the same depth of analysis I used to last season, but after 10 games:

    We are 2nd in the league - won 7, drawn 1, lost 2; scored 16, conceded 11 (so GD +5) - and 22 points (2.2 points per game).

    Despite the raw feeling of the last two games both being defeats - objectively, this is still a very positive start - 2.2 points per game, extrapolated over the full season would earn us 101 points after 46.

    Last years calculations all focused on 85 points as the benchmark / threshold - from the next 36 games, we would need 63 points to get to that total - this would be 1.75 points per game. As such, over the next 10 games, to reach that target we'd need to secure 6 wins from 10 (or any other mix of results to secure 18 points e.g. W5 D3 L2 or similar)

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