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Something like that ... was going to put nearly everything on City @ Vale (honest) ... so this is one option to try & take the lead into the last weekend.
my data source for results/table was updated late, so charts didn't automatically update ... updated now https://www.probs4.club/exeweb/predict/ still a handful of potential winners, could be decided by tie break.
As we enter the last month of the season, larrywilkie still has the lead with denzel in 2nd. But, I think, anyone within 10 points could still grab the title.
A quick check of the tallies that make the charts show relegation once in 10,000
also re-ran 1 million times, giving relegation 43 times, so approx 23,000/1
ECFC scores first...
01/04 A Cheltenham 2-0 W
06/04 H Stevenage 0-2 L
09/04 A Leyton Orient 0-1 L
13/04 A Port Vale 1-0 W
20/04 A Northampton 1-1 D
27/04 H Oxford 1-0 W
10 points
With Bournemouth drawing a week or two back, it means unless city also drop points in one of thier three games before the finale it's not going to be decided on goal difference.
we are talking different percentages for different things.
Consider https://www.probs4.club/team/Wycombe#TPO
so the amount in red accounts for 0.03% of Wycombe's likely outcomes.
From the 10000 predicted outcomes Wycombe get relegated four times 0.04% (rounded to 0.0%)
The data from the...
Wigan are at 0.1% & Wycombe 0.0% but these are to one decimal place, so that's between, 5-14 times in 10,000 for Wigan & 1-4 times for Wycombe.
If Wigan & Wycombe get zero more points then they still have a fair chance of relegation as per these graphs...
City's relegation percentage still around 10% (10.5%)
But A**yle who currently have 40 pts from 36 games & who are 16th (all three the same as City) have a relegation percentage of 15.4%, even though only three teams get related from the Championship. With 23th only two points behind on 38pts &...
02/03. A. Peterborough. L 0-2
09/03. H. Bolton. L 0-2
12/03 A. Shrewsbury. W 1-0
16/03. H Burton. L 0-1
23/03. A L Orient. L 1-2
29/03. H Charlton. W. 2-1
Six points
Can think of three reasons ...
1. My model is crap
2. You're a pessimist.
3. Historically our current position 40pts from 35 has seen a bottom four finish around 22% of the time. It just the cluster of teams below us makes it more likely the points needed to survey is a few less than average...
After last nights results + Reading's additional two points deduction, City's relegation percentage has now dipped to below 10% (9.6%)
https://www.probs4.club/lge/lge1#LOOT-4
With Charlton's there is a whole host of teams that could occupy that 4th place.
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