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Politics Today

Hants_red

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Who needs brothers! After the fiasco yesterday with Boris's brother, my MP Leo Doherty suffers from his own brother's views appearing in print

 

Mr Jinx

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Brexit Party got 5.2m votes at the EU election. Tories and UKIP got another 2m. I think that is probably not far off everyone that will support a No Deal Brexit and is likely to turnout. Farage went very hard to get people out to vote. This election will be about Brexit whether Johnson likes it or no. I think it is a huge assumption to believe there is anywhere near enough others willing to support the Tory Party to get a 30-40 seat majority. Perhaps not in your eyes, but No Deal is now being seen as a bigger threat to the UK than Corbyn. Regardless of all the "chicken" headlines, why would Labour rush an election when they can claim to the party to have blocked No Deal, all the while this government exposes it huge levels of incompetence and crassness. Destined for another hung parliament I think. Referendum really might be the only way out of this.
A lot of assumptions in there, some being quite far from the mark. Let's face it, anything can happen. I am thinking that if a tie up between Tories and TBP can be done then it's Boris's in the bag. But the way things are moving, I'm not sure that Tories/TBP will do a tie up. If they can't, I just don't know what'll happen. Perhaps another hung parliament where no alliance to govern can be formed. Another Referendum would be close and the same old arguments emerge. Then what? Best of three.

I think the biggest problem is that given the way things have fractured, First Past the Post is simply no longer tenable. 40 years ago things were simple: we had two main parties with a sliver in the middle, much like the US. Since Scotland splintered off and UKIP/TBP has emerged, the whole thing has become multi headed, much like European governments that have between 5 and 10 different parties where coalitions are the norm. Rather than have another GE or Referendum at this juncture, perhaps we should reform to full PR first then take things from there. Just sayin. Not that that would ever happen.

That aside, some bonkers rumours are abound: Boris resigning or calling No Confidence in his own government which would put Corbyn in number 10 temporarily whilst an election is called for mid Oct (which the Queen would have to call, bypassing the HOC). We're in completely unprecedented and unchartered waters now. Farage must be rubbing his hands in the corner, but he, like all of them let's be honest, must be very careful what they wish for.
 

IndoMike

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A lot of assumptions in there, some being quite far from the mark. Let's face it, anything can happen. I am thinking that if a tie up between Tories and TBP can be done then it's Boris's in the bag. But the way things are moving, I'm not sure that Tories/TBP will do a tie up. If they can't, I just don't know what'll happen. Perhaps another hung parliament where no alliance to govern can be formed. Another Referendum would be close and the same old arguments emerge. Then what? Best of three.

I think the biggest problem is that given the way things have fractured, First Past the Post is simply no longer tenable. 40 years ago things were simple: we had two main parties with a sliver in the middle, much like the US. Since Scotland splintered off and UKIP/TBP has emerged, the whole thing has become multi headed, much like European governments that have between 5 and 10 different parties where coalitions are the norm. Rather than have another GE or Referendum at this juncture, perhaps we should reform to full PR first then take things from there. Just sayin. Not that that would ever happen.

That aside, some bonkers rumours are abound: Boris resigning or calling No Confidence in his own government which would put Corbyn in number 10 temporarily whilst an election is called for mid Oct (which the Queen would have to call, bypassing the HOC). We're in completely unprecedented and unchartered waters now. Farage must be rubbing his hands in the corner, but he, like all of them let's be honest, must be very careful what they wish for.
IINM the point of Boris voting against himself in a NCV is to force an election, not to put Corbyn in power?
 

Mr Jinx

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IINM the point of Boris voting against himself in a NCV is to force an election, not to put Corbyn in power?
Yes, but as far as I understand it, by default Corbyn as Leader of the opposition becomes PM albeit temporarily pending the outcome of the forced GE. He doesn't get any time to do anything whilst inside number 10 (even if has time to move in). It's nothing more than symbolic.

But you do wonder if this is part of the grand plan?: giving Corbyn the keys to number 10 will give enough people the willies not to vote Labour in the GE. I only voted Labour in 2017 partly because I thought Corbyn didn't stand a cat in hell's chance of becoming PM. If I thought he stood a chance I wouldn't have voted Labour. Sound bonkers I know, and yes I'm an idiot, lol.
 

IndoMike

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Yes, but as far as I understand it, by default Corbyn as Leader of the opposition becomes PM albeit temporarily pending the outcome of the forced GE. He doesn't get any time to do anything whilst inside number 10 (even if has time to move in). It's nothing more than symbolic.

But you do wonder if this is part of the grand plan?: giving Corbyn the keys to number 10 will give enough people the willies not to vote Labour in the GE. I only voted Labour in 2017 partly because I thought Corbyn didn't stand a cat in hell's chance of becoming PM. If I thought he stood a chance I wouldn't have voted Labour. Sound bonkers I know, and yes I'm an idiot, lol.
I confess to not being sure about this, but imo the logical thing would be for the current PM to continue until the GE result.
I think the Grand Plan idea is a bit of a cop out. It's something commentators discuss across the Pond : all Trump's fark ups are really part of a Grand Plan. Yeah, right.
I would never call you bonkers or an idiot regarding voting for Corbyn because you know he won't win (it is a bit odd though :) ). But that's a risky game : how would you feel if Corbyn actually won by one vote.
 

arthur

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I am thinking that if a tie up between Tories and TBP can be done then it's Boris's in the bag.
35% is not a majority
 

arthur

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Good to see parliamentary democracy is alive and well

And if anyone, especially Mr Tavy, has got three quarters of an hour to spend, going on car journey, doing the ironing etc. then I'd really recommend this
 

Alistair20000

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35% is not a majority

Morning art.

You are right it is not a majority but 35.2% of the popular vote delivered the Reverend Blair an overall majority of 66 in 2005. The vagaries of FPTP innit.
 

arthur

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Morning art.

You are right it is not a majority but 35.2% of the popular vote delivered the Reverend Blair an overall majority of 66 in 2005. The vagaries of FPTP innit.
Afternoon Al,

I am a fervent believer in your "we've formed a government by accident" scenario and marvel at the confidence with which the usual suspects predict that "Boris (sic) has it in the bag/will have a majority of 30"
 

Mr Jinx

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35% is not a majority
33 + 12 = 45% is however. Unless you're doing the age old trick of adding in the 30% that never vote.
 
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